China
Profile
Despite its prior support for the Northern Alliance, China cultivated good relations with the Taliban over the past decade. Starting in 2014, the Taliban delegations began to visit China publicly and regularly, culminating in secret talks that China facilitated between Kabul and the Taliban in Urumqi. On March 31, 2021, China also hosted the regional foreign ministers' meeting on Afghanistan that included the Taliban's acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi. Due to its security and ethno-nationalistic separatist concerns, China has extended an unprecedented level of engagement and diplomatic support for the Taliban. The Taliban have described Beijing as its main partner in reconstruction, although China has only provided limited humanitarian assistance. Afghanistan remains an epicenter and proliferator of transnational terrorism and extremism that could spill instability into Pakistan and Tajikistan, two of China's close economic partners in the region. Like others, China has adopted a wait-and-see approach while remaining engaged with the IEA government in Kabul to ensure stability on its westernmost border. While China commits to not interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, it has engaged in Afghanistan due to its concerns over ETIM and threats of indirect spillover of instability. Minerally rich Afghanistan remains outside the OBRI scope due to instability and lack of infrastructure.
Key Interests & Priorities
1. Spillover of Insecurity
Less concerned about direct threats to itself, China worries about the spillover of instability from Afghanistan to Pakistan and Tajikistan. China is worried about threats to its investments in Pakistan, having invested $60 billion in CPEC-related ventures. Jihadi militants have targeted CPEC projects. Securing its assets in Pakistan is of critical interest to China. China has also deployed its soldiers to neighboring Tajikistan to monitor the Tajik-Afghan border. China’s main interests in Tajikistan are maintaining domestic stability so that the country remains a buffer against violence from Afghanistan and to ensure that it does not become a haven for terrorists targeting Xinjiang.
2. International Terrorism
The Chinese Uyghur minority have historic and ethnic ties with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan. Uyghur militants have sought haven in Afghanistan and have been linked to al Qaeda, with several hundred joining the fighting in Syria. China’s concern is that militant Uyghurs might seek to use Afghanistan’s remote Wakhan corridor as a springboard to launch attacks and foment dissent in Xinjiang. China shares a 57-mile-long border with Afghanistan at the terminus of the remote and isolated Wakhan Corridor.
3. Inclusive Government
China seems conflicted about its policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs and its concerns about the Taliban's ability to secure peace and stability. China, like other regional states, wants the Taliban to establish an inclusive government with representative participation from all ethnic groups and parties in Afghanistan, considering it essential for both domestic and international support and recognition. China does not want Afghanistan to fall into turmoil, harbor ETIM, or become a source of unrest, affecting the security of its CPEC investments.