India
Profile
India has deep concerns about the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Islamic militant groups— long-standing threats to Indian security—are likely to gain from the lack of state capacity and a more friendly, Islamic government in Afghanistan. At the same time, India views Afghanistan through the lens of competition with regional rivals Pakistan and India. Pakistan holds strong historical ties to elements of the Taliban, while China’s resources and willingness to engage with the Taliban have seen its influence rise. India worries that Pakistani and Chinese influence in the Taliban’s Afghanistan will exacerbate existing concerns about Islamic militant threats to Indian security and reduce Indian leverage over Afghan and regional affairs. Thus, India looks to pragmatically engage with the Taliban and align with the US and other western actors to limit the influence of China and Pakistan. The Taliban have also shown interest in engaging with India, even asking the latter to provide military training to its fighters-turned-military. In addition, if the Taliban government can guarantee stability and security, India will attempt to capitalize on opportunities for economic projects connecting South Asia to other regions through Afghanistan, like the TAPI pipeline.
Key Interests & Priorities
1. International Terrorism
India’s primary interest in the Taliban’s Afghanistan is reducing the security threat posed by terrorist organizations finding refuge within and acting from Afghanistan. Fundamentally, the absence of strong state capacity and a relative power vacuum in Afghanistan has led to worries that space may open up for increased terrorist activities. The Taliban’s Islamic ideology and militancy also pose unique concerns about its relationships with Islamic militant groups operating in South Asia. Such groups have consistently posed the gravest threats to India’s security; terror organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad have been responsible for horrific attacks on Indian soil. Terrorist activities related to Afghanistan also resonate strongly in India due to the 1999 hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight and the following diversion to Kandahar and hostage negotiations.
2. Regional Politics
Pakistan is India’s most significant regional rival. Historical open conflicts and nuclear standoffs have given way to recent limited escalations and contestation over regional security issues. India-Pakistan tensions are most profound on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistani support of Islamic militant groups operating against India. Especially given concerns about the Taliban’s potential relationship with or enabling Islamic militants, India is particularly wary of Pakistani influence in the Taliban’s Afghanistan. While traditionally, much to India’s concern, Pakistan has exercised significant sway over the Taliban, recent tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban represent an opportunity for the Indian government. India will look to exploit growing discontent about the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan terror group, pragmatically engaging with the Taliban to draw the new government away from Pakistan. Relatedly, India has consistently looked to reduce US-Pakistan cooperation, particularly in Afghanistan. China represents another important regional rival for India. Historical border tensions in Ladakh boiled over in 2020, as Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Galwan Valley high in the Himalayas. While the conflict has cooled slightly, no long-term agreement has been reached and military build-up continues on both sides of the contested border. Thus, China and India are increasingly competitive actors in regional and international developments. India’s growing engagement with Quad nations and the West highlight this divergence. At the same time, China seems to be looking to capitalize on the new government in Afghanistan. Although reluctant to fully embrace them at times, China has engaged with the Taliban since the takeover. The Taliban has enthusiastically welcomed Chinese involvement in the country, seeing Chinese financial and development assistance as crucial to overcoming the comprehensive, western-led international sanctions regime. So far, the Chinese have not made any noteworthy financial or development assistance. India worries that a China-dependent Taliban may look the other way on security threats to India as China looks to gain the upper hand in the border conflict.