Iran
Profile
Iran and Afghanistan have had a complicated relationship that has ebbed and flowed over the past several decades. The two countries were on the verge of a war in 1998 when the Taliban killed nine Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif. Iran supported the Tajiks and Hazaras against the Taliban. After September 11, Iran worked with the US and other countries to support the new government in Kabul. Currently, it hosts approximately 3 million Afghan refugees, mostly undocumented migrants and serves as one of the major conduits of Afghan narcotics to Europe. Iranian and Taliban relations shifted in 2015 when the two sides converged over a common threat in the ISKP and a common ideological foe in the US. Tehran and the Taliban collaborated to help contain the new terror group. The Taliban reportedly maintained offices in Iran, including in Zahedan and Mashhad—and some purchased homes in Iran. On the way back from a secret trip to Iran, an American drone strike killed the Taliban's former supreme leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour. While Iran and the Taliban pursued a pragmatic approach, their tenuous relations are tested by flaring tensions and hostilities. The puritanical insurgent Sunni Taliban views Shia Iran as heretics, while Iran fears Afghanistan could again become a haven for terrorists intent on targeting Shiites and Iran. Since the Taliban takeover, there have been several border clashes.
Key Interests & Priorities
1. Spillover of Insecurity
Iran has long sought the withdrawal of US forces from both neighboring Iraq and Afghanistan. However, the chaotic aftermath of the international withdrawal and the Taliban's rapid takeover have presented Tehran with many security risks. In addition, Iran shares a 900 km long porous border with Afghanistan that is the site of many key smuggling transit points of people and narcotics. Recognizing this, Tehran cultivated a careful policy that did not officially recognize the Taliban as a legitimate government, but, in order not to antagonize it, engaged in diplomatic relations, even accrediting the group's diplomats. However, the Taliban's resumption of power has increased the number of Afghan immigrants that fear prosecution by the Taliban and seek better economic opportunities. In addition, old rifts between the two neighbors have escalated tensions to a new level (i.e., harassment of Afghans, stabbing of Iranian clerics by Afghan Sunni extremists, border skirmishes, and increased attacks targeting Shiites in Afghanistan). In April 2022, both sides put their border forces on high alert, fearing an escalation of tensions. Tehran also temporarily suspended its consular services in Afghanistan after attacks on its diplomatic missions in Kabul and Herat by angry protesters over the condition of Afghan refugees in Iran. Seeking to avert instability and civil war across the border, Iran has emphasized the need for an inclusive Afghan government and hosted talks between the Taliban and Afghan resistance.
2. International Terrorism
Security concerns have primarily driven Iran's engagement with Afghanistan. For this reason, Tehran sought cooperative relations with its erstwhile foe, the Taliban, converging on a common threat emanating from ISKP. The ISKP and the Taliban are irreconcilable enemies with differences over the role of nationalism. The ISKP has had international territorial ambitions, intending to punish the Shia Iranian government and cleanse Afghanistan by targeting Shia minority groups. The ISKP also wants to dislodge the Taliban as the main jihadi militant organization. The group also seeks the destruction of Shi'is and the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. Both Iran and the Taliban have a common interest in containing the ISKP. However, the Taliban's takeover has presented opportunities for the ISKP and led to its ramping up of violence. Chief among them is the absence of U.S. aerial and Afghan military operations that had previously weakened and cornered the transnational militant group. Now, the Taliban are alone. Tehran wants to avoid conflict and threats from ISKP along its southern and eastern borders, which have substantial Sunni communities.
3. Inclusive Government and Border Security
Securing its borders is the most pressing issue facing Tehran and driving its engagement with the Taliban. Tehran wants to avoid open conflict between the Taliban, ISKP, other terrorist groups, Afghan minorities like the Hazara and Turkic Uzbek, and opposition groups like the National Resistance Forces. Iran remains particularly wary of instability in Afghanistan because such volatility increases the number of refugees and the amount of trafficking into Iran. That is why, Tehran has repeatedly called for an inclusive government in Afghanistan with the practical and lasting presence and participation of all ethnic groups in Afghanistan. Towards that end, Tehran hosted talks between Taliban acting foreign minister Mutaqqi and NRF's Ahmad Masoudmin early 2022, but the talks did not yield any results. Iran continues to emphasize the need for an inclusive Afghan government to avert spillover of instability and its ramifications across the border. Like in Iraq, Tehran conceivably prefers a central government strong enough to rein in jihadists but weak enough to be politically pliable and not pose a military threat. Moreover, Iran's leaders know that despite assurances, the Sunni fundamentalist militia could flip against Shiite Iran.