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Pakistan

Pakistan.png

Profile

Pakistan’s foremost interest in Afghanistan is to limit terrorist activity. Pakistan already has a history of terrorism, and the Pakistani government worries that international terrorist organizations will be empowered and emboldened in the Taliban’s Afghanistan. These fears are largely becoming reality—Pakistan experienced a 42% annual increase in terror attacks in 2021, with much of the increase occurring after the Taliban takeover. Experts point to the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) as the primary culprits behind the increase in terror; the group has found refuge within the Taliban’s Afghanistan. An increase in terrorist activity threatens the stability, security, and prosperity of the Pakistani people and, in many cases, also directly threatens the safety and well-being of Pakistani government officials. Thus, Pakistan is deeply concerned about limiting terrorist activity in the IEA. This key interest informs their priorities in Afghanistan, including building state capacity and ending the enticing power vacuum.

Key Interests & Priorities

1. International Terrorism

Pakistan’s foremost interest in Afghanistan is to limit terrorist activity. Pakistan already has a history of terrorism, and the Pakistani government worries that international terrorist organizations will be empowered and emboldened in the Taliban’s Afghanistan. These fears are largely becoming reality—Pakistan experienced a 42% annual increase in terror attacks in 2021, with much of the increase occurring after the Taliban takeover. Experts point to the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) as the primary culprits behind the increase in terror; the group has found refuge within the Taliban’s Afghanistan. An increase in terrorist activity threatens the stability, security, and prosperity of the Pakistani people and, in many cases, also directly threatens the safety and well-being of Pakistani government officials. Thus, Pakistan is deeply concerned about limiting terrorist activity in the IEA. This key interest informs their priorities in Afghanistan, including building state capacity and ending the enticing power vacuum.

2. International Recognition for IEA

The Pakistani government sees the legitimization of Taliban rule as a crucial step to the stabilization of the region. As such, the Pakistani government supports international recognition of the Taliban government as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. However, because Pakistan lacks the economic leverage to withstand international pressure, they have not yet officially recognized the Taliban government. Despite this lack of leverage, Pakistan continues to lobby the international community to ease sanctions and pressure on the IEA. In February 2022, former Pakistani PM Imran Khan said: “Is there a chance that if the Taliban are squeezed, there could be a change for the better? No.” Thus, Pakistan sees the loosening of international restrictions on the Taliban’s Afghanistan as in their interest.

3. Border Security

Defining the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan remains a huge sticking point between the Pakistani government and the Afghan Taliban. Neither side agrees with the internationally recognized Durand Line, leading to conflicting conceptions of the division of territory between the two countries. This represents a basic flash point for incidents between security forces on each side who believe to be within their own territory; this risk was highlighted by a February 2022 border incident between Afghan and Pakistani forces that left several dead. As Pakistan continues with its project to build an extensive border fence along much of the border, these incidents may become more common. Disagreements about the shape of the border also belie deeper, fundamental Pakistani interests. The TTP’s Pashtun nationalism aligns ideologically with large elements of the Afghan Taliban; Pakistan’s most serious fear is the success of a Pashtun nationalist movement in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and along the border, endorsed and aided by the Afghan Taliban. Thus, Pakistan sees the security and stability of the border as among its top interests related to Afghanistan. Other important border-related concerns include the flow of migrants and illicit commercial activities.

Relationships

Allies

PRC

Partners

IEA
HQN
RUS
TUR
UAE
US
UK
LeT
JeM

Rivals

Adversaries

AAOs

IRA
QAT
IND
TTP
ISKP
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