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Russia

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Profile

Russia and the Taliban were traditional foes, with the former supporting the Northern Alliance that opposed the Taliban. The Taliban, in turn, backed the Chechen rebels that fought Russia during the 1990s. The Taliban has never committed an attack on Russian territory. It was declared a terrorist organization by Russia's Supreme Court in 2003. However, the two have been cooperating more and more closely in recent years. Their relationship changed in 2015 when their interests in combating ISKP coincided. Russia wants to avoid an Islamist terrorist threat in Central Asia and establish a security buffer in Afghanistan's northern region. Moscow had also reportedly paid the Taliban to target US forces in Afghanistan. In recent years, Moscow and the Taliban have increased their diplomatic contacts. Since the Taliban has taken power, Moscow wants a working relationship with them because they are the only group capable of combating terrorism and keeping their embassy open in Kabul. Moscow has indicated they might remove the Taliban from the terrorist list. But they are nowhere near diplomatically recognizing the IEA, although they have accredited a Taliban diplomat at the embassy in Moscow. Moscow has far more influence in Kabul than it did over the past two decades, being at its lowest under President Ghani. As a result, its expectations of Taliban rule are low, and the group's hold over the country is tenuous. That is why Moscow has consistently called for an inclusive government with representatives from the opposition to prevent Afghanistan from succumbing to a civil war. Russia also supports the removal of asset freezes against the Taliban. It has also urged the international community to aid Afghanistan's reconstruction from four decades of conflict.

Key Interests & Priorities

1. Spillover of Insecurity

The key factor shaping Russia's policy is regional stability, particularly in securing the borders of its Central Asian neighbors to prevent the spread of terrorism and drug trafficking. There are various Islamic extremist and post-Soviet ethnic groups that are based and operate in the north of Afghanistan. ISKP is considered a major threat, with many of its fighters of Central Asian origins having returned from the Middle East. Russia is also concerned about threats emanating from the IMU that have a close connection to al Qaeda and the Taliban.

2. Narcotics

Another major threat is the flow of narcotics and contrabands along the northern route from Afghanistan via Central Asia to Russia and Eastern and Northern Europe. The latter development is critical since drug profits are the sources of financing terrorism.Afghanistan accounted for some 85% of global opium production in 2020, supplying 80% of all opiate users worldwide. The 2018 UNODC estimates suggest that 54.65 tons of heroin enter the northern route, a third of Afghan heroin. Each Central Asian country along the northern route is a consumer and transit country. Still, Russia is the largest consumer market of all the countries on the route, where most opiates are sold to final consumers.

3. Inclusive Government

Moscow believes the Taliban's grip on power is weaker than it appears. There are concerns that the Taliban will struggle to exert control over northern Afghanistan and that this vulnerability, combined with the Afghan economy's sharp deterioration and the Taliban's refusal to give up violence, could lead to the emergence of al Qaeda and ISKP cells. According to Moscow, the "insufficient representation of the Afghan people" is a major obstacle to recognizing the Taliban government worldwide. Owing to these risks, Moscow has urged the Taliban to create an inclusive coalition government to ameliorate intra-state conflicts, while also emphasizing the need for a diplomatic settlement between the Taliban and the Ahmad Massoud-led National Resistance Front.

Relationships

Allies

KAZ
TJK
KGZ

Partners

IND
UZB
TKM
PRC
KSA
IRA
PAK
UAE

Rivals

Adversaries

AAOs

TUR
IEA
HQN
US
UK
GER
FRA
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