Turkey
Profile
Turkey has been involved in the Afghanistan conflict through its NATO operations since 2001. It has also attempted to host and partner in the Heart of Asia – Istanbul Process to bring together regional and international stakeholders to coordinate reconciliation efforts. Turkey kept its diplomatic mission open in Kabul after the Taliban takeover in 2021, the only NATO country to do so. It strongly expressed interest in helping run Kabul airport. That way, Ankara could gain a foothold in Afghanistan, which could have helped it achieve its broader goals - to politically rehabilitate ties with the U.S., strengthen its foothold in the geopolitics of Central Asia, and gain a source of leverage vis-à -vis Europe, particularly regarding migration. Despite strong diplomatic engagements by the Turks, the Kabul airport project was given to the UAE. Presently, there are 300,000 Afghans residing in Turkey, with 183,000 officially registered and the remainder undocumented. Like Islamabad, Ankara has asked for international recognition of the Taliban.
Key Interests & Priorities
1. Global Politics
Turkey was the only NATO country that operated its diplomatic mission after the Taliban takeover. Ankara hopes to build influence over the Taliban government, which would serve not only Turkey’s geopolitical interests. Influence over Kabul would give Ankara valuable political capital with the U.S. and NATO. Moreover, with the closure of the western diplomatic mission in Kabul, Ankara hopes to get the ears of the Taliban and persuade them to more moderate attitudes, especially towards women.
2. Migration
One of Turkey's primary concerns is the influx of additional refugees from Afghanistan while already housing over 4 million Syrian refugees and 300,000 Afghans amid an economic crisis. In addition to geopolitical reasons, Ankara prioritizes maintaining contact with the new Taliban regime for purposes of migration prevention.
3. Inclusive Government
An inclusive government has the best chance to ensure the prevention of state collapse and additional migration to Turkey. It would also give Turkey influence through its ethnic Afghan Uzbek and Turkmen partners further influence in its ambitions of political and economic expansion in Central Asia. While Ankara tried to use its diplomatic efforts to steer the Taliban towards a more inclusive government, it has lately called for the international recognition of the Taliban's current exclusive regime.